Nature and Science

Applying Non-stable Time Series Model to Forecast the Groundwater Dynamic Variation in the Well-Irrigated Rice Area in Sanjiang Plain

Qiang Fu1,2 , Wei Zu 3

Abstarc :

Groundwater shortage has become a very serious problem  in Sanjiang Plain. More and more
so-called “funnels” and “hanging pumps” situations occurred due to water shortages. The overall trend of
groundwater level has decreased continually over the years.  In this study, the Chuang Ye Farm in Jian
San  Jiang Department was taken as an example to develop a non-stable time series random model by
applying the random analysis method. The model was  used to simulate the dynamic variation and
forecast the trend in the  future. This study aims to provide a  better  understanding  for the sustainable
development of agriculture and use of groundwater resources. [Nature and Science. 2004;2(3):55-61].

Key Word :
non-stable time series model; well-irrigated rice; groundwater; Sanjiang Plain

Volume 2, Number 3, October 2004 , ISSN 1545-0740